The ASEAN and global rice market fundamentals in 2011–2012 indicate record production and growth in global stocks. International reference prices for long grain white rice have declined significantly from levels of the previous 3 years.
The baseline projections presented in this paper imply a growth in output, consumption, stocks and trade, assuming normal weather and a continuation of current policies. Should India revert to an export ban as it liquidates its rice stock and suffers from monsoon failure, the global rice economy could tighten quickly. This is particularly true if Thailand insists on maintaining its paddy pledging price floor and implicit tax on its rice exports (See Full article).
Eric J. Wailes and Eddie C. Chavez
Asian Development Bank